NEED TO KNOW
US Shots fired at White House correspondents’ dinner: A gunman stormed the lobby of the Washington Hilton and charged toward the ballroom during the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner on Saturday, firing shots and prompting an immediate evacuation of the event that was honoring journalism and the First Amendment. President Trump, attending the dinner for the first time in his current term and seated onstage, was unharmed and was escorted out along with Vice President Vance and first lady Melania Trump as guests ducked under tables amid the chaos. The suspect, identified as 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen was taken into custody and authorities said he acted alone.
ME US-Iran peace hopes fade as Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan: President Trump cancelled a planned trip by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks on the Iran war. The American President stated that the envoys would be wasting "too much time” and that if Iran wanted to talk "all they have to do is call”, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi expressed doubts about whether the US was "truly serious about diplomacy.” The cancellation comes amid a fragile extended ceasefire, ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed, and Iran's nuclear program, though Trump said the truce would hold for now.
ME Israel-Lebanon extend ceasefire: President Trump announced that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks after fresh talks between the countries' envoys in Washington. The US President also said that both Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli PM Netanyahu are set to visit the White House "in the coming weeks".
EU €90bn loan for Ukraine approved: The EU gave final approval to a €90-billion loan for Ukraine and a new round of sanctions on Russia, after months of deadlock. Hungary and Slovakia dropped their objections, after Ukraine restarted oil flows following repairs to the damaged Druzhba pipeline. European Commission President von der Leyen said it would be possible to release the first tranche of the €45bn funding planned for 2026 in this quarter and the first payment would fund Ukraine’s domestic drone production. The loan, funded by EU borrowing with the intention that Russian reparations will fund repayments, is expected to cover two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial needs in 2026 and 2027.
US Gulf and Asian US allies ask for swap lines: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that several Gulf allies (including the UAE) and Asian nations have requested currency swap lines from the US to manage energy shocks and fallout from the Iran conflict. Bessent noted such lines would benefit both sides by stabilizing dollar funding markets and preventing disorderly asset sales. President Trump has indicated openness to considering them.
IS Netanyahu reveals cancer diagnosis: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed on Friday that he underwent successful treatment in 2024 for prostate cancer. According to The Times of Israel, the 76-year-old leader admitted he kept the diagnosis secret to prevent Iran from using the information for propaganda purposes during the ongoing regional conflict. His doctors at Hadassah Medical Center confirmed the early-stage tumor has since disappeared following the "targeted treatment" and routine monitoring.
RU Russia halts Kazakh oil transit to Germany: Russia said it would block the flow of Kazakh crude to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline system starting May 1. The PCK refinery, located in the town of Schwedt, which receives oil supplies via the pipeline, provides the vast majority of diesel, petrol and heating oil needed for the city of Berlin. The move undermines Germany’s strategy to turn to Kazakhstan as an alternative after it stopped importing Russian oil directly and it underscores Europe’s continued dependence on Russian-controlled infrastructure, even when sourcing oil from non-Russian producers.
SWE Sweden considering energy rationing: Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated Sweden may need to impose energy rationing if disruptions from the Iran war persist, though no immediate plans exist and conservation recommendations would come first. The government is examining ways to mitigate higher prices and secure supplies amid what officials call the “worst energy crisis in a long time.”
US Anthropic raises billions from Google and Amazon: Google has significantly expanded its stake in Anthropic with a new $40 billion investment aimed at scaling computing infrastructure. This deal includes an immediate $10 billion infusion, with the remaining $30 billion contingent on performance milestones. Amazon also announced it would increase its own investment in Anthropic by $5 billion (with up to $20 billion more planned), while Anthropic committed to spending over $100 billion on Amazon Web Services (AWS) technologies over the next decade.
CH Government plan to force UBS to increase its capital by $20 billion: The Swiss government has approved a proposal to tighten capital rules for systemically important banks, specifically targeting UBS and requiring the bank to fully back its holdings in foreign subsidiaries with core equity capital held by its parent company. Under current rules, up to about 50% of those holdings can be financed with debt. The measure, aimed at reducing the risk of another banking collapse, state bailouts, or taxpayer exposure, would be phased in over seven years if the Parliament approves it. UBS has strongly opposed the plan for months, along with parts of the banking sector.
JP Japan lifts arms exports ban for the first time after World War II: Japan’s cabinet approved major revisions to its post-WWII arms export rules, allowing sales of lethal weapons (including warships, missiles, and fighter jets) to 17 eligible countries. The shift under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi marks a departure from pacifist policies amid regional security concerns and aims to boost defense industry growth and alliances.
EU ECB takes steps to limit US dominance in European payments: The European Central Bank has agreed on rules to pave the way for the rollout of a digital version of the euro and signed contracts with three domestic organizations to ensure any European payments card can talk to any card reader in the bloc once a digital euro is introduced. Europe’s card-payment infrastructure has long been governed by EMVCo, a California-based consortium controlled by the major card networks, but the ECB has now agreed to adopt open standards developed by European bodies instead. The move is part of a wider push for strategic autonomy in payments, reducing reliance on non-European networks that currently handle the overwhelming majority of euro-zone card and mobile transactions. ECB President Christine Lagarde has publicly stressed the urgency of Europe controlling its own digital-payment systems to limit geopolitical risks and data vulnerabilities.
GOOD TO KNOW
Series of suspicious trades raise concerns over insider trading in the US government
Earlier in the week, the BBC published the findings of an investigation that uncovered a pattern of suspicious, high-volume trades occurring hours, or sometimes minutes, before major, market-moving announcements by US President Trump.
According to the BBC’s analysis of trade volume data, some of the biggest spikes have been seen in oil trades on the futures market. Key examples include a surge in oil futures bets on March 9, nine days into the Iran war, before Trump declared in a CBS interview that the war was “very complete, pretty much,” causing oil prices to drop 14% (part of a larger 25% decline that day). According to the BBC, “the first time the public would have known about the interview was at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter posted about it on X…However, market data shows a huge surge of bets were placed on the price of oil falling at 18:29 GMT - a full 47 minutes before the reporter's post.” A similar pattern was identified on March 23, when the US President posted on Truth Social that Washington had held “productive conversations" with Tehran over a “complete and total resolution" to hostilities. An unusually high number of bets on the US oil price were placed just 14 minutes before the President's post.
Beyond the recent war-related developments, the investigation also pointed to suspicious trading activity during last year’s “Liberation Day” announcements. On 2 April 2025, President Trump announced his sweeping tariffs on goods from practically every country in the world, causing stock markets to plummet. A week later, he walked back the decision by announcing a 90-day "pause" on the levies for all countries (apart from China). Predictably, stock markets rallied in relief, with the S&P 500 index surging by 9.5%, one of the largest single-day gains since the WWII. According to the investigation, “a pattern of unusual trading preceded these events with an unusually high number of bets ahead of the announcement on one fund that tracks the S&P 500.The number of contracts traded jumped to over 10,000 per minute just after 18:00 BST. Earlier in the day the number had been in the hundreds. Some traders bet over $2m on the stock market increasing that day, even though it had gone through seven days in a row of losses.”
Bets on prediction markets have also raised concerns, including the wagers placed on Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January 2026, that a special forces soldier was arrested for this week, and bets on the timing of the US strikes against Iran. Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February and all of them placed wagers on strikes happening by the end of that month. When the attacks were confirmed by President Trump in the early hours of February 28, the accounts earned $1.2m between them. As the BBC highlighted, “five of those six users have placed no more bets since, but one of the account's recent activity shows it has subsequently made $163,000 by correctly betting on a US-Iran ceasefire by 7 April, which was announced by Washington and Tehran on that day.”
NICE TO KNOW
US Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adopt alternative credit scoring: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin accepting newer credit-scoring models, including versions that incorporate rent, utility, and other nontraditional payment data. It marks one of the biggest changes to US mortgage underwriting in years and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte stated that the move is designed to modernize credit scoring and boost access to affordable mortgages for millions of Americans who lack traditional credit histories.
IT Italy set to overtake Greece as Eurozone’s most indebted country: According to Reuters reporting, Greece will no longer hold the title of the eurozone’s most indebted nation by the end of 2026, as its public debt is projected to fall below Italy’s (to around 137% of GDP this year from 145% in 2025). Italy’s debt is expected to remain stable near 138% before gradual declines. This shift reflects Greece’s significant debt reduction since its 2020 peak of over 209%, while Italy’s remains elevated.
US Special Forces soldier arrested for Maduro bet: Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant, has been arrested for allegedly using classified information to profit from a $400,000 bet on the capture of Nicolás Maduro. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan, as reported by The Washington Post and Time, allege that Van Dyke used his access to military planning for "Operation Absolute Resolve" to place wagers on the prediction market Polymarket. He faces charges of unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.
TR Tera company stock 40,000% surge: Shares of Turkish brokerage Tera Yatırım Menkul Degerler AS have surged nearly 40,000% since its 2022 IPO, with repeated massive monthly gains (e.g., 54%, 108%, 61%, 73%) driven largely by its flagship investment fund that delivered over 1,500% returns in the past year. According to Bloomberg, the fund “achieved those results by pouring billions of lira into a tight circle of related companies and amplified the bets with borrowed cash. The fund amassed stakes in Tera itself, as well as Tera subsidiaries and companies that Tera’s brokerage has helped take public.”The explosive growth has mystified traders in Turkey’s speculative market and drawn scrutiny over the firm’s fundamentals versus retail investor hype on social media. While the stock price declined somewhat this week, Tera still has a market value of $4.5 billion, making it one of Turkey’s most valuable companies despite having only about 130 employees. At times this year, Tera has been valued more than global corporations with thousands of employees such as the BGC Group Inc.
US Apple replacing Tim Cook with a new CEO: Apple announced that longtime CEO Tim Cook will step down from the role but stay on as executive chairman, with John Ternus (current head of hardware engineering) named as the new CEO effective September 1, 2026. Ternus, a 25-year Apple veteran will lead the company as it navigates AI and hardware innovation.
UAE 50% of government services to run on AI agents in 2 years: Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced that within two years, 50% of the UAE’s government sectors, services, and operations will run on Agentic AI, making the UAE the first government globally to operate at this scale with autonomous systems. The Dubai ruler highlighted that "AI is no longer a tool. It analyses, decides, executes, and improves in real time. It will become our executive partner to enhance services, accelerate decisions, and raise efficiency”.
AI Meta starts tracking employee activity to train AI: Meta is rolling out a new internal tool, called the Model Capability Initiative (MCI), that will monitor employees’ keystrokes and mouse clicks on company computers and apps specifically to collect data to train its AI models. Some staff have reacted negatively, calling the move “very dystopian”, especially amid recent layoffs of about 2,000 workers, a partial hiring freeze, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s pledge to nearly double AI spending to roughly $140 billion in 2026.
US Envoy seeks to replace Italy for Iran in the World Cup: Paolo Zampolli, a Trump ally and US special envoy, suggested to FIFA President Gianni Infantino that Italy should replace Iran in the 2026 World Cup, even though Italy failed to qualify. The plan has been widely seen as an effort to repair ties after Trump and Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni fell out amid the US leader's attacks against Pope Leo XIV over the Iran war. Italian officials rejected the idea as “shameful” and inappropriate, emphasizing qualification must be earned on the pitch.
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